Using SPICT to predict risk of dying

Colleagues from the international SPICT community have published studies looking at use of SPICT to identify those with a higher risk of dying in geriatric inpatient wards (Belgium) and in primary care (Australia). They said:

“SPICT seems to be valuable for identifying geriatric patients in need of palliative care as it demonstrates significant association with one-year mortality and with clinical survival predictions of experienced geriatricians, as reflected by treatment limitation decisions.

“This model predicts risk of death within 6 to 12 months with acceptable reliability in a general practice setting and has the potential to be incorporated into clinical practice and electronic records.”


Woolfield A, Mitchell G,  Kondalsamy-Chennakesavan S, Senior H. Predicting Those Who Are at Risk of Dying within Six to Twelve Months in Primary Care: A Retrospective Case–Control General Practice Chart Analysis. Journal of Palliative Medicine. DOI:10.1089/jpm.2018.0562 (A predictive model of mortality risk based on SPICT indicators – overall predictive accuracy of 78%)

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